Inter‐comparison of historical simulation and future projections of rainfall and temperature by CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs over Egypt

The global climate models (GCMs) performances of the recently released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) compared to its predecessor, CMIP5, are evaluated anticipate expected changes in over Egypt. Thirteen GCMs and their multi-model ensemble (MME) both CMIPs were used for this purpose. future projections two radiative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 8.5) shared socio-economic (SSP 2–4.5 5–8.5). results revealed improvement most CMIP6 replicating historical rainfall, maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum (Tmin) climatology MME that could reproduce Egypt's spatial distribution seasonal variability. However, bias CMIP5 was higher than CMIP6. uncertainties simulating variability rainfall temperatures lower CMIP5. projection using a reduction precipitation (10–26 mm) economically crucial northern region estimated (0–17 mm), 133.5 mm base period. also projected 0.74–1.63°C more rise Tmax Tmin by end century. study indicates aggravated scenarios Egypt anticipated earlier, models. Therefore, needs streamline existing adaptation mitigation measures account projections.